Operation of China Purchasing Managers Index in December 2019
National bureau of statistics service industry survey center
china federation of logistics & purchasing
I. Operation of Purchasing Managers Index of China Manufacturing Industry
In December 2019, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 50.2%, which was the same as last month.
In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, and that of medium-sized enterprises was 51.4%, up 1.9 percentage points from last month. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was above the critical point. The PMI of small enterprises was 47.2%, down 2.2 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point.
From the classification index, among the five classification indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employee index are lower than the critical point.
The production index was 53.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, and remained above the critical point, indicating that the production expansion of manufacturing enterprises continued to accelerate.
The new order index was 51.2%, down 0.1 percentage point from last month and above the critical point for two consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continued to grow.
The raw material inventory index was 47.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in manufacturing industry decreased.
The employee index was 47.3%, which was the same as last month, indicating that the employment boom of manufacturing enterprises was stable.
The delivery time index of suppliers was 51.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, which was above the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in manufacturing industry was accelerated.
II. Operation of Purchasing Managers Index for Non-manufacturing Industries in China
In December 2019, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.5%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry maintained an overall expansion trend and its growth rate slowed down.
By industry, the business activity index of service industry was 53.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month. From the perspective of industry categories, the business activity index of railway transportation, accommodation, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software information technology services, financial services, leasing and business services industries is above 55.0%, and business activities are relatively active; The business activity index of wholesale industry, real estate industry and other industries is located in the contraction range. The business activity index of the construction industry was 56.7%, down 2.9 percentage points from last month, and maintained a high level of prosperity.
The new order index was 50.4%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month and above the critical point. In terms of industries, the new order index of service industry was 50.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month; The new order index of the construction industry was 52.9%, down 3.1 percentage points from last month.
The input price index was 52.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, which was above the critical point, indicating that the overall increase of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities narrowed. In terms of industries, the price index of service inputs was 52.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month; The price index of construction inputs was 53.0%, down 3.3 percentage points from last month.
The sales price index was 50.3%, which was 1.0 percentage points lower than that of last month, but it was still above the critical point, indicating that the overall sales price level of non-manufacturing industries increased slightly compared with last month. In terms of industries, the sales price index of service industry was 49.9%, down 1.2 percentage points from last month; The sales price index of the construction industry was 52.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month.
The employee index was 48.3%, down 0.7 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point. In terms of industries, the index of service industry employees was 47.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month; The index of employees in the construction industry was 50.7%, down 4.8 percentage points from last month.
The expected index of business activities is 59.1%, which is 1.9 percentage points lower than that of last month, but it is still in a high boom zone, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises are more optimistic about the future market development. In terms of industries, the expected index of service business activities was 59.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from last month; The expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 59.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from last month.
Third, the operation of China’s comprehensive PMI output index
In December 2019, the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above the critical point, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises maintained an overall expansion trend.
annotations
1. Interpretation of main indicators
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an index compiled through the statistical summary of the monthly survey results of purchasing managers of enterprises. It covers all aspects of purchasing, production and circulation of enterprises, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing fields. It is one of the leading indexes used internationally to monitor macroeconomic trends and has strong forecasting and early warning functions. The comprehensive PMI output index is a comprehensive index that reflects the output changes of the whole industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) in the current PMI index system. PMI usually takes 50% as the dividing point of economic strength, and when PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the overall economic expansion; Below 50%, it reflects the overall economic contraction.
2. Scope of investigation
It involves 31 industry categories and 3,000 survey samples in the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-2017); There are 37 major categories of non-manufacturing industries and 4000 survey samples.
3. Investigation methods
The purchasing manager adopts PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, taking manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries as the layer, and the sample size of industries is distributed according to the proportion of their added value to the total added value of manufacturing or non-manufacturing, and the samples in the layer are extracted with the probability proportional to the main business income of the enterprise.
This survey was specifically organized and implemented by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of Statistics, and a monthly questionnaire survey was conducted on the purchasing managers of enterprises by using the national statistical network direct reporting system.
4. Calculation method
(1) Calculation method of classification index. The survey index system of purchasing managers in manufacturing industry includes 13 sub-indexes, such as production, new orders, new export orders, orders in hand, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price of main raw materials, ex-factory price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production and business activities expectation, etc. The survey index system of purchasing managers in non-manufacturing industry includes 10 sub-indexes, such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, orders in hand, inventory, input prices, sales prices, employees, supplier delivery time and business activity expectations. The classification index adopts the diffusion index calculation method, that is, the percentage of enterprises that answer positively plus half of the percentage that answers unchanged. Because there is no composite index for non-manufacturing industries, the international business activity index is usually used to reflect the overall changes of non-manufacturing economic development.
(2) The calculation method of manufacturing PMI index. Manufacturing PMI is weighted by five diffusion indices (classification indices). The five classification indexes and their weights are determined according to their leading influence on the economy. Specifically, it includes: new order index with a weight of 30%; Production index with a weight of 25%; Employee index, with a weight of 20%; Supplier delivery time index with a weight of 15%; Raw material inventory index, with a weight of 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, which is inversely calculated when synthesizing the manufacturing PMI index.
(3) Calculation method of comprehensive PMI output index. The comprehensive PMI output index is a weighted sum of manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, and the weights are the proportion of manufacturing and non-manufacturing to GDP respectively.
5. Seasonal adjustment
Purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey, which is influenced by seasonal factors and the data fluctuates greatly. The published indexes are all seasonally adjusted data.