Original Sun Taiyi’s Bottom Line Thinking
Text/Observer Network columnist Sun Taiyi
Associate Professor, Christopher Newport University, USA
The first US presidential debate in 2024 came earlier than ever before.
This was originally the result of Biden’s team’s promotion, because Biden’s polls are backward at present, and many voters may vote in advance. They think that to change this trend, they need a shot in the arm.
However, their abacus is wrong. Biden’s poor performance has caused discussions and even calls within the Democratic Party to change candidates as soon as possible.
On June 27, 2024, in Atlanta, USA, US President Biden and former President Trump participated in the first debate of the 2024 presidential election. Figure from IC Photo
The misjudgment of Biden team
From this point of view, Biden’s advisory group seems to be very ungrounded. They thought that it would bring Biden a turn for the better by debating a few months in advance, but they did not understand Biden’s current state.
For example, Biden’s advisers believe that changing the rules and turning off the microphone when it is not one party’s turn to speak or one party is overtime can effectively limit Trump’s interruption of Biden, which will be more beneficial to Biden. In fact, what we have seen is that Biden may have benefited from this in the previous two debates in 2020, because Trump interrupted Biden, which not only gave Biden a chance to breathe and think, but also made Trump aggressive and selfish. The characteristics of arrogance are magnified. You know, Biden often can’t end every speech in a very effective way, and if it seems to be interrupted by Trump, this weakness is not so obvious. Today, Biden’s time is inexhaustible, and Trump is more restrained and calm than before because the microphone is turned off.
Democrats wanted to present Trump’s image of disorganization and bad character, especially to make the middle voters dislike Trump, so that Trump could not make his own basic disk. Because the Democratic Party knows very well that Trump’s own basic disk is hard to shake. As a result, although Trump did not necessarily win the favor of the middle voters because of lying and avoiding questions today, he differentiated Biden’s basic disk to some extent.
From the people’s livelihood of ethnic minorities to the border, social security, medical insurance, military welfare and foreign policy, Trump made Biden look overwhelmed with his unique exaggeration and even full of fabricated but potentially effective attacks during the debate. The embarrassment brought by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to Biden is particularly obvious, because Biden wants to keep his image of supporting Jews without losing the votes of Muslims and Arabs in swing States. Of course, the Democratic team asked Biden to debate at this time, and Biden’s old age, worrying health and incompetence for the presidency were magnified.
Afterwards, Biden had an assistant who wanted to save the situation, saying that Biden had caught a cold and had not recovered. In order to show that this is a fact, the assistant also emphasized that Biden took the COVID-19 test and the result was negative. But Biden came up with the impression that he might have practiced too much and lost his voice. This kind of high-intensity training may also be added to Biden by Biden’s team. Now it seems that it may be more important to have a good rest and be energetic. What if you speak slowly? Maybe the audience can hear more clearly and have time to think about the content before expressing it.
It is really more difficult to state the facts accurately.
Biden’s team actually predicted that Trump would lie in the debate, but if Biden focused on refuting Trump’s lies, he would lose the opportunity to express his policy stance. So before the debate, Biden’s team had negotiated with CNN hosts, hoping that they could refute the lies told by the candidates on the spot. But this request was rejected by the host-the host felt that since you were debating, you should point out each other’s lies.
The failure of Biden’s team communication also made today’s debate unfavorable to Biden from the beginning. Biden hopes to pursue the truth and set the facts, which must be more difficult than spreading rumors and lies. Biden is still expounding the policy step by step, hoping to recall accurate figures. Trump’s series of extreme and exaggerated statements such as "Ever", "Everything", "Worst" and "In the history of" often have no factual basis, but give people the illusion that he is in control of the rhythm and can easily control these topics.
Trump appeared to be comfortable IC Photo first debate, and Biden’s attack on Trump seemed to be overwhelming.
Biden’s efforts can’t make him 100% accurate. For example, the border bill he had jointly promoted with members of the two parties was supported by the border patrol union, but Biden said in his statement that the union endorsed himself. He wanted to express that American soldiers did not directly and openly participate in the hot war during his tenure, but said that no American soldiers died during his tenure.
Of course, this is nothing compared with Trump’s lie that Biden wants to raise everyone’s tax rate by four times, and that only a small number of people rushed into the building during the riots on Capitol Hill and were brought in by the police. But lies, exaggeration and saying the wrong thing are sometimes similar in the hearts of the audience. Just as Trump’s own crime and Biden’s son’s crime can be equated in the eyes of some people. Therefore, Biden got nothing from such a debate.
Will the Democratic Party change people?
As soon as the debate was over, there was a voice within the Democratic Party to replace Biden as soon as possible before the Democratic Party Congress was held. After all, there may be only one or two months before the election in the past debate. This debate is held in June and before the Democratic National Congress. Why not take the opportunity to change someone as a candidate and change the current decline? For an opponent with a lot of stains like Trump, many people in the Democratic Party think that defeating Trump is a high probability event as long as it is a normal Democratic candidate. David Axelrod, Obama’s former adviser, also said after the debate that the party will definitely discuss alternatives, and this may be a turning point in this year’s election. Once someone is changed, Trump will be in danger, and today’s debate will become a victory for the Democratic Party.
Biden’s senile side was magnified in the debate. In the face of Trump’s aggressive attack, Biden’s parry seemed to be unable to cope with IC Photo.
However, it is not so easy to change people. On the level of values, the Democratic Party has always believed that it represents the sense of rules and procedural justice, Trump is the destroyer of democracy, and the Democratic Party has always maintained the American democratic system and prevented it from being destroyed by Trump. However, if we want to change people, it means that the candidates elected by voters in the previous primary elections will not be recognized. On the contrary, it gives people the feeling that "the elites and oligarchs in the party have abolished the candidates elected by the democratic process and set up another candidate after manipulating the situation". This seems to give the Democratic Party a dilemma of "victory or democracy". You know, Biden won nearly 99% of the party delegates in the primary election.
Therefore, in the process, to replace Biden, Biden may only decide to quit-although the Democratic Party can also borrow the relevant provisions of the special case of "when the candidate loses his capacity" to replace him, if Biden does not lose his capacity, then the dilemma mentioned above still exists. Biden didn’t seem to feel that he lost the debate at the rally where he met his supporters in Atlanta after the debate with the first lady. It is estimated that he didn’t feel the need to change candidates for the time being. Is it not just a debate? Debates have good performances and bad performances, and they are also likely to take Reagan’s first debate as an example, but the final result is still a big victory.
However, if Biden insists on not withdrawing from the election, he is bound to find ways to make up for the loss tonight, and he may have to increase his exposure on TV to try to save the situation. But the more you watch TV, the greater the possibility of flaws and shortcomings. In other words, Biden’s situation may become more and more passive. At present, only Obama and Pelosi can convince Biden and have enough influence in the party. The next two statements are particularly important. If they don’t express their support for Biden in the media soon, expressing that a small debate is insignificant and everyone needs to continue to unite around Biden, it means that they may be hesitant to persuade Biden to withdraw from the election.
Interestingly, in the current Democratic Party, it is not Vice President Harris, but California Governor Newsom who is the most vocal about Biden’s replacement after his withdrawal. In order to preserve his political capital, Newsom said that Biden was the winner in the "essence" of the policy in today’s debate when he was surrounded by the media at the end of the debate, and called for not betraying Biden, continuing to support Biden and going all out, and metaphorically said that "the partner you took to the dance must be the one you want to go with when you leave".
There is not much time left for the Democratic Party to discuss, mainly because they may not wait for the convening of the Party Congress. Because of the technical problems in Ohio, the Democratic Party had planned to confirm Biden’s candidacy in advance to prevent the candidate from failing to vote in the state. Therefore, today’s debate is a bit confusing within the Democratic Party, and although Trump obviously scored more points at the end of the debate, after the institutions and mechanisms to verify the facts and refute lies began to operate, Trump may not benefit from the swinging middle voters. For observers, the dull election cycle in the United States this year has finally seen some dramatic new trends.
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Original title: "Biden’s performance is poor, does the Democratic Party want to change people? 》
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