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Operation of China Purchasing Managers Index in December 2019

Operation of China Purchasing Managers Index in December 2019
National bureau of statistics service industry survey center
china federation of logistics & purchasing

I. Operation of Purchasing Managers Index of China Manufacturing Industry

In December 2019, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 50.2%, which was the same as last month.

In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, and that of medium-sized enterprises was 51.4%, up 1.9 percentage points from last month. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was above the critical point. The PMI of small enterprises was 47.2%, down 2.2 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point.

From the classification index, among the five classification indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employee index are lower than the critical point.

The production index was 53.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, and remained above the critical point, indicating that the production expansion of manufacturing enterprises continued to accelerate.

The new order index was 51.2%, down 0.1 percentage point from last month and above the critical point for two consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continued to grow.

The raw material inventory index was 47.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in manufacturing industry decreased.

The employee index was 47.3%, which was the same as last month, indicating that the employment boom of manufacturing enterprises was stable.

The delivery time index of suppliers was 51.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, which was above the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in manufacturing industry was accelerated.

II. Operation of Purchasing Managers Index for Non-manufacturing Industries in China

In December 2019, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.5%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry maintained an overall expansion trend and its growth rate slowed down.

By industry, the business activity index of service industry was 53.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month. From the perspective of industry categories, the business activity index of railway transportation, accommodation, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software information technology services, financial services, leasing and business services industries is above 55.0%, and business activities are relatively active; The business activity index of wholesale industry, real estate industry and other industries is located in the contraction range. The business activity index of the construction industry was 56.7%, down 2.9 percentage points from last month, and maintained a high level of prosperity.

The new order index was 50.4%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month and above the critical point. In terms of industries, the new order index of service industry was 50.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month; The new order index of the construction industry was 52.9%, down 3.1 percentage points from last month.

The input price index was 52.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, which was above the critical point, indicating that the overall increase of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities narrowed. In terms of industries, the price index of service inputs was 52.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month; The price index of construction inputs was 53.0%, down 3.3 percentage points from last month.

The sales price index was 50.3%, which was 1.0 percentage points lower than that of last month, but it was still above the critical point, indicating that the overall sales price level of non-manufacturing industries increased slightly compared with last month. In terms of industries, the sales price index of service industry was 49.9%, down 1.2 percentage points from last month; The sales price index of the construction industry was 52.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month.

The employee index was 48.3%, down 0.7 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point. In terms of industries, the index of service industry employees was 47.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month; The index of employees in the construction industry was 50.7%, down 4.8 percentage points from last month.

The expected index of business activities is 59.1%, which is 1.9 percentage points lower than that of last month, but it is still in a high boom zone, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises are more optimistic about the future market development. In terms of industries, the expected index of service business activities was 59.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from last month; The expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 59.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from last month.

Third, the operation of China’s comprehensive PMI output index

In December 2019, the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above the critical point, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises maintained an overall expansion trend.

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1. Interpretation of main indicators

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an index compiled through the statistical summary of the monthly survey results of purchasing managers of enterprises. It covers all aspects of purchasing, production and circulation of enterprises, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing fields. It is one of the leading indexes used internationally to monitor macroeconomic trends and has strong forecasting and early warning functions. The comprehensive PMI output index is a comprehensive index that reflects the output changes of the whole industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) in the current PMI index system. PMI usually takes 50% as the dividing point of economic strength, and when PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the overall economic expansion; Below 50%, it reflects the overall economic contraction.

2. Scope of investigation

It involves 31 industry categories and 3,000 survey samples in the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-2017); There are 37 major categories of non-manufacturing industries and 4000 survey samples.

3. Investigation methods

The purchasing manager adopts PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, taking manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries as the layer, and the sample size of industries is distributed according to the proportion of their added value to the total added value of manufacturing or non-manufacturing, and the samples in the layer are extracted with the probability proportional to the main business income of the enterprise.

This survey was specifically organized and implemented by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of Statistics, and a monthly questionnaire survey was conducted on the purchasing managers of enterprises by using the national statistical network direct reporting system.

4. Calculation method

(1) Calculation method of classification index. The survey index system of purchasing managers in manufacturing industry includes 13 sub-indexes, such as production, new orders, new export orders, orders in hand, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price of main raw materials, ex-factory price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production and business activities expectation, etc. The survey index system of purchasing managers in non-manufacturing industry includes 10 sub-indexes, such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, orders in hand, inventory, input prices, sales prices, employees, supplier delivery time and business activity expectations. The classification index adopts the diffusion index calculation method, that is, the percentage of enterprises that answer positively plus half of the percentage that answers unchanged. Because there is no composite index for non-manufacturing industries, the international business activity index is usually used to reflect the overall changes of non-manufacturing economic development.

(2) The calculation method of manufacturing PMI index. Manufacturing PMI is weighted by five diffusion indices (classification indices). The five classification indexes and their weights are determined according to their leading influence on the economy. Specifically, it includes: new order index with a weight of 30%; Production index with a weight of 25%; Employee index, with a weight of 20%; Supplier delivery time index with a weight of 15%; Raw material inventory index, with a weight of 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, which is inversely calculated when synthesizing the manufacturing PMI index.

(3) Calculation method of comprehensive PMI output index. The comprehensive PMI output index is a weighted sum of manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, and the weights are the proportion of manufacturing and non-manufacturing to GDP respectively.

5. Seasonal adjustment

Purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey, which is influenced by seasonal factors and the data fluctuates greatly. The published indexes are all seasonally adjusted data.

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No kebab shop is perfect.

People who are traveling or working in other places will occasionally have a subtle psychology when eating barbecue. Simply put, it is: "I can’t figure out why there is no such thing?"

"This" refers to something from snacks to big food. It’s delicious to simply bake it, but it’s not on the barbecue stall here.

Of course, there are some foods with local characteristics that local people can figure out, such as roasted milk tofu and dried apricots in Inner Mongolia and roasted melons in Yunnan. But some universal foods are not used as kebabs, so it always feels incredible. Take butter, for example. Where is it? But Hunan people can make roasted butter into a special feature of Xiangxi skewers.

The tip of the chicken wings and the treasure in the palm that southerners like are moved up to the thicker roast chicken wings in the north … Since the wings of the chicken have been broken, why only keep its biceps brachii, and why not roast the tip of the chicken wings separately? I don’t understand 

Barbecue is the most primitive cooking method of human beings, unlike famous dishes from all over the world, which need to be passed down by chefs. Most of us have the first impression of barbecue, that is, the stall in front of our house. Simply baking it and brushing the seasoning can appease the young taste buds. So I preconceived that barbecues should be the same everywhere. Even if you don’t have any favorite ingredients, just tell your boss that it should be ready in two days.

When I grew up and "wandered" to other cities, I found that there were many barbecue sects in various places, and the difference was too great. A Guizhou native said that he thought that all the places ate broken ears, baked potatoes, and dipped them in dip with broken ears.

But the reality is cruel, this wonderful food is rejected by many people, and the barbecue stall owner who opens the door to do business is even more afraid to expect it, and is good at providing it. One more thing is better than one less thing.

There is also the local litsea oil, which has a special fragrance similar to the combination of pepper and ginger. Eat sour soup rice at the barbecue stall and drop a few drops. This meal is complete. He once ordered a kebab at his home in Beijing and dropped a little on it himself, but it didn’t taste like that.

Muttered with colleagues: "It’s obviously very simple. Why don’t you just buy some folded ears in the store and cut them?"

A colleague from Sichuan, a neighboring province, told him: "These two things taste too remote, and it is easy to understand if they are not cooked in other provinces. Last time I went to Hangzhou on business, I asked my boss if he had baked konjac at midnight. The boss’s eyes are wide open. Can that thing be baked? "

He is also full of grievances, and he looks at the menu. Apart from meat or meat, in fact, he simply needs to put on a large piece of konjac with two bamboo sticks, put it on the fire, sprinkle some ingredients, and eat it when the temperature is up.

When eating, it’s just like eating a hot tongue, and it doesn’t gain weight. Why isn’t there a barbecue stall outside? And ribs, why can’t they be baked with green peppers? He didn’t think that such a large piece of ingredients as konjac would cost an extra piece to string together, which would lead to high cost over time and not be able to sell like meat. Northeast China and North China are rich in meat sources and good in meat quality. Red meat alone can be divided into crisp bones, meat tendons, plate tendons, kebabs, oily edges, chest, heart-protecting meat and many other points. The boss doesn’t have to go to so much trouble to make a bunch of trivial vegetarian dishes.

As for the double peaks of green peppers and ribs, it is a common sight for Sichuanese. On the other hand, it seems that the boss has a bad mind in order to reduce costs: "It is obvious that there can be eight pieces of meat on a string, and now half of them are replaced with green peppers!"

These seem completely negligible in business, and the subtle differences are very different on everyone’s tongue.

Linyi said: Before she went to Beijing, the definition of barbecue was fried skewers with pancakes, grilled starfish, and baked hairy eggs that her mother took her to a stall and ate around a small stove. Hairy eggs and live beads are not suitable for pictures, and some places, such as Nanjing, like them very much. People who don’t love them are scared to death when they hear that there are half-formed chickens in them. This classmate said: when I have money, I must open a pure barbecue restaurant in our hometown, and people who can’t eat baked eggs are not allowed to enter.

There are also stone eggs, also called real eggs, which are made by opening a small hole in the egg, pouring out the contents, stirring evenly like coffee, adding edible alkali like coffee with sugar, and continuing to stir evenly, so that the egg will turn pale green, then pouring the stirred egg liquid into the egg shell, and a cup of egg kabuqi (shi) will be finished, then steaming and solidifying, and then baking on the shelf.

Like the roast chicken rack, all the local people are in full swing, but the food is not popular all over the country.

Northeasters can’t get used to barbecues without dried tofu in the south. There are too many kinds of bean products in the barbecue stalls in the south, such as vegetarian chicken, thick bean skin, wrapped bean curd, etc., which are roasted with fire, and what you want is the feeling that it tastes like meat but not meat.

Dried tofu can only be sidelined. Southerners will think it is too thin and dry. Barbecue stalls were originally not made. Later, because of the large population circulation between the north and the south, it was crept on the menu. However, if dried tofu is not brushed with thick sauce, it will taste a little less charming.

The joys and sorrows of human beings are not interlinked, and so is their knowledge. What is taken for granted in one place becomes "inexplicable surprise" in another place.

In A String of Life, Chongqing’s roasted brain flowers and Xuzhou’s roasted sheep’s eyes are also counted as "dark dishes", which makes people all over the country feel "incredibly wild". People in Sichuan and Chongqing and Xuzhou only think that they are noisy.

People in Sichuan and Chongqing still eat rabbits. What’s surprising about brain flowers? So they can’t press the table. When Xuzhou people go to other places to eat barbecue, they will sigh like plum blossoms, one sigh that there is no roasted sheep ball, the other sigh that there is no roasted sheep eye, and the third sigh that it is not suitable for handmade noodles. Xuzhou has the habit of eating sheep, and the whole dog days last for more than a month, which is the Fu Yang Festival. I was fascinated by eating sheep. It was a pity that so many sheep only made mutton soup, so they pondered the barbecue.

The barbecue is more finely divided, just like Chaoshan people eat beef in countless parts. In addition to sheep balls and sheep eyes, the local barbecue shop also has a stretched belly of sheep, which is the meat near the ribs of sheep, which has both muscle, lean meat and fat, and is delicious in three. Xuzhou people are located in the north and south, and their eating habits are mixed with rice and flour. Barbecue with handmade noodles or steamed buns is a matter of course, as if the barbecue in the world should be eaten like this, and people in South China will feel choked.

Chongqing people don’t understand why foreigners don’t eat roasted skin (more recently), and Yunnan people don’t understand the absence of roast chicken tendons. What everyone thinks is: "It’s obvious that it’s enough to put it on the fire. Why don’t foreign barbecue shops sell it, even if they have a chat?"

Some people have begun experiments to eliminate these inconspicuous but crucial differences. Now, roasted butter has been popularized in first-tier cities, and roasted skin has also radiated outward along the periphery of Chongqing. Of course, the farthest one must be the northeast barbecue. Recently, in Shenzhen, I ate a good Qiqihar barbecue, an iron plate with pork belly, beef, sauerkraut, peanuts and Chili powder.

The boss is from the northeast and asked him how he thought of opening this store. He said, "The seafood barbecue here is not delicious. I thought, barbecue should be like my home, so I just opened one. "

The story of Hegang skewers in Beijing is similar. Hegang barbecue is mainly made of cattle, with small pieces of meat, and the characteristic is "medium rare". When the local school was over, the chef of kebabs began to open and sold them to students, who didn’t have any pocket money, so the meat slices were cut thin and small.

When Hegang people arrived in Beijing, how do you think the beef here is cut into such a big piece? It’s not tasty yet There are few kinds. The local kinds are raw tendons, cooked tendons, plank tendons, meat tendons, bright tendons, beef heart tube, beef chest, beef bone marrow, beef slices and beef tendon … The fineness is also catching up with Chaoshan beef pot.

The same idea: "The barbecue should be like my home." Later, Hegang people simply drove themselves.

If we want to combine the imagination of people from all over the world about barbecue shops, we will make a perfect barbecue shop. Stocking should be like this: master Xinjiang is in charge of docking excellent meat sources, master Xuzhou is in charge of distributing mutton, master Hegang is in charge of distributing beef, master Sichuan or Chongqing is in charge of pork (mainly dealing with fat intestines and brain flowers, as well as pig meat in Liangshan), and another master Yunnan is in charge of roasting chicken skin, chicken feet, chicken tendons and bean products, and learning from Mala Tang Store to purchase vegetarian chicken, tofu skin, dried orchids, chiba tofu, dried tofu and konjac. Vegetarian dishes such as leeks, cauliflower, eggplant, potatoes, lotus root slices, Flammulina velutipes, green peppers and rice cakes can satisfy 90% of China diners.

As for the grilled seafood, then give it to the Guangdong master.

However, this seasoning is difficult. Some people want to eat pickled meat, some like fresh meat, and some people like spicy and cumin. The spicy taste in Sichuan, Chongqing and Yunnan is different. Northeastern people prefer sweet and spicy and brush sauce, and the dip is unique and elegant. Fuzhou people’s barbecue also has a red bad taste. It is also difficult to match the staple food. Xi ‘an people’s steamed buns, Xuzhou people’s boiled buns, Shandong people’s pancakes, and northeast baked wheat cakes are all eaten with barbecue and have to be imported from different places.

Obviously a very simple thing, away from home, is not. This is the meaning of hometown and the reason why there is no perfect barbecue restaurant in the world.

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Minister of Finance refutes "retrogression of marketization process": the premise is not established.

  BEIJING, March 25 (Reporter Li Jinlei) In response to the question that "the retrogression of China’s marketization process poses a major threat to the global economy", Minister of Finance Liu Kun said in Beijing on the 25th that the premise of the question itself was not established.

  Liu Kun made the above remarks at the China Development Forum hosted by the the State Council Development Research Center on 25th.

  Regarding the question that some people think that "the retrogression of China’s marketization process poses a major threat to the global economy", Liu Kun responded that it is difficult to understand this issue.

  Liu Kun pointed out that China has been carrying out reform and opening up for 40 years. Since the reform and opening up, the national strength has been greatly strengthened, the economic aggregate has increased substantially, and the people’s living standards have been improved to a high degree. This process is the process of establishing and perfecting the socialist market economy in China, so no one has a deeper understanding of the market economy than the ordinary people in China and the cadres and officials in China.

  Liu Kun said that in the process of reform and opening up, the earliest measure was to replace the original planned economy with the concept of socialist market economy. This process is vivid to everyone and very profound.

  Liu Kun asked, saying that China’s marketization process is retrogressive, so where does the power source of China’s economic growth come from? If the power source is not from Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s economic development, where can it come from? "So, I don’t think the premise of this question itself is established." (End)