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Operation of China Purchasing Managers Index in December 2019
National bureau of statistics service industry survey center
china federation of logistics & purchasing

I. Operation of Purchasing Managers Index of China Manufacturing Industry

In December 2019, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 50.2%, which was the same as last month.

In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, and that of medium-sized enterprises was 51.4%, up 1.9 percentage points from last month. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was above the critical point. The PMI of small enterprises was 47.2%, down 2.2 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point.

From the classification index, among the five classification indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employee index are lower than the critical point.

The production index was 53.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, and remained above the critical point, indicating that the production expansion of manufacturing enterprises continued to accelerate.

The new order index was 51.2%, down 0.1 percentage point from last month and above the critical point for two consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continued to grow.

The raw material inventory index was 47.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in manufacturing industry decreased.

The employee index was 47.3%, which was the same as last month, indicating that the employment boom of manufacturing enterprises was stable.

The delivery time index of suppliers was 51.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, which was above the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in manufacturing industry was accelerated.

II. Operation of Purchasing Managers Index for Non-manufacturing Industries in China

In December 2019, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.5%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry maintained an overall expansion trend and its growth rate slowed down.

By industry, the business activity index of service industry was 53.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month. From the perspective of industry categories, the business activity index of railway transportation, accommodation, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software information technology services, financial services, leasing and business services industries is above 55.0%, and business activities are relatively active; The business activity index of wholesale industry, real estate industry and other industries is located in the contraction range. The business activity index of the construction industry was 56.7%, down 2.9 percentage points from last month, and maintained a high level of prosperity.

The new order index was 50.4%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month and above the critical point. In terms of industries, the new order index of service industry was 50.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month; The new order index of the construction industry was 52.9%, down 3.1 percentage points from last month.

The input price index was 52.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, which was above the critical point, indicating that the overall increase of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities narrowed. In terms of industries, the price index of service inputs was 52.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month; The price index of construction inputs was 53.0%, down 3.3 percentage points from last month.

The sales price index was 50.3%, which was 1.0 percentage points lower than that of last month, but it was still above the critical point, indicating that the overall sales price level of non-manufacturing industries increased slightly compared with last month. In terms of industries, the sales price index of service industry was 49.9%, down 1.2 percentage points from last month; The sales price index of the construction industry was 52.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month.

The employee index was 48.3%, down 0.7 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point. In terms of industries, the index of service industry employees was 47.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month; The index of employees in the construction industry was 50.7%, down 4.8 percentage points from last month.

The expected index of business activities is 59.1%, which is 1.9 percentage points lower than that of last month, but it is still in a high boom zone, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises are more optimistic about the future market development. In terms of industries, the expected index of service business activities was 59.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from last month; The expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 59.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from last month.

Third, the operation of China’s comprehensive PMI output index

In December 2019, the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above the critical point, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises maintained an overall expansion trend.

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1. Interpretation of main indicators

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an index compiled through the statistical summary of the monthly survey results of purchasing managers of enterprises. It covers all aspects of purchasing, production and circulation of enterprises, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing fields. It is one of the leading indexes used internationally to monitor macroeconomic trends and has strong forecasting and early warning functions. The comprehensive PMI output index is a comprehensive index that reflects the output changes of the whole industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing) in the current PMI index system. PMI usually takes 50% as the dividing point of economic strength, and when PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the overall economic expansion; Below 50%, it reflects the overall economic contraction.

2. Scope of investigation

It involves 31 industry categories and 3,000 survey samples in the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-2017); There are 37 major categories of non-manufacturing industries and 4000 survey samples.

3. Investigation methods

The purchasing manager adopts PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, taking manufacturing or non-manufacturing industries as the layer, and the sample size of industries is distributed according to the proportion of their added value to the total added value of manufacturing or non-manufacturing, and the samples in the layer are extracted with the probability proportional to the main business income of the enterprise.

This survey was specifically organized and implemented by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of Statistics, and a monthly questionnaire survey was conducted on the purchasing managers of enterprises by using the national statistical network direct reporting system.

4. Calculation method

(1) Calculation method of classification index. The survey index system of purchasing managers in manufacturing industry includes 13 sub-indexes, such as production, new orders, new export orders, orders in hand, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price of main raw materials, ex-factory price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production and business activities expectation, etc. The survey index system of purchasing managers in non-manufacturing industry includes 10 sub-indexes, such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, orders in hand, inventory, input prices, sales prices, employees, supplier delivery time and business activity expectations. The classification index adopts the diffusion index calculation method, that is, the percentage of enterprises that answer positively plus half of the percentage that answers unchanged. Because there is no composite index for non-manufacturing industries, the international business activity index is usually used to reflect the overall changes of non-manufacturing economic development.

(2) The calculation method of manufacturing PMI index. Manufacturing PMI is weighted by five diffusion indices (classification indices). The five classification indexes and their weights are determined according to their leading influence on the economy. Specifically, it includes: new order index with a weight of 30%; Production index with a weight of 25%; Employee index, with a weight of 20%; Supplier delivery time index with a weight of 15%; Raw material inventory index, with a weight of 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, which is inversely calculated when synthesizing the manufacturing PMI index.

(3) Calculation method of comprehensive PMI output index. The comprehensive PMI output index is a weighted sum of manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, and the weights are the proportion of manufacturing and non-manufacturing to GDP respectively.

5. Seasonal adjustment

Purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey, which is influenced by seasonal factors and the data fluctuates greatly. The published indexes are all seasonally adjusted data.

　　Feng Zijian, executive vice president and secretary general of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association, said that the real-world research on the preventive effect of domestic vaccines inoculated in Hong Kong and mainland China showed that Chinese vaccines still had a good protective effect on severe illness and death caused by Omicron mutant.

　　Feng Zijian introduced that at present, many technical routes in China have developed univalent and multivalent Omicron mutant vaccines. The univalent inactivated vaccine of Omicron mutant has been approved by clinical trials, and clinical trials are being carried out in Zhejiang, Hunan and Hongkong. The tetravalent recombinant protein vaccine, which has made rapid progress, has been approved for phase III clinical trial in UAE, and related research has been started. In addition, the research on broad-spectrum COVID-19 vaccine has been laid out, and the vaccine with rapid progress has been approved for clinical trials, and related research has been started.

　　Generally speaking, the research and development of Omicron mutant vaccine in China is progressing steadily and rapidly. As long as it is necessary and in accordance with the requirements of relevant laws and regulations, emergency use procedures can be quickly started to provide vaccination. As to whether and when to vaccinate the vaccine specifically targeting Omicron mutant, this issue is being studied not only in China but also internationally, mainly to judge the situation of virus mutation and immune escape. (Reporter Gu Tiancheng, Dong Ruifeng)

　　At present, the game between the United States and Russia is getting worse and worse, which has attracted worldwide attention. The United States and Russia are deadlocked on the Syrian issue. In addition, anti-missile, nuclear disarmament and cyber security in Ukraine and Eastern Europe have also become flashpoints between the two countries. As a result, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov bluntly said that "the US-Russia relationship has undergone fundamental changes, and the United States has not only made anti-Russian remarks, but also taken aggressive actions that pose a threat to Russian security."

　　As Lavrov said, the relationship between the United States and Russia has indeed changed. Is this the beginning of the "new cold war"? Some analysts believe that US-Russian relations have indeed entered a "new historical trough", and the two sides have comprehensively torn apart in various fields. Some media believe that the game between the United States and Russia is more like a "nerve war" of mutual pressure, each testing the other’s bottom line, but always maintaining a state of "fighting without breaking".

　　The game between the United States and Russia is getting worse and worse.

　　Recently, Russia’s relations with the United States and other western countries have turned sharply. Due to the escalation of contradictions between the United States and Russia on the Syrian issue, the United States announced the termination of contacts with Russia on the Syrian issue. The two sides immediately launched infighting at all levels to closely safeguard their own interests.

　　On October 3, the United States announced that it would suspend negotiations with Russia on the Syrian ceasefire and shelve its military plan to jointly fight terrorists with Russia.

　　Then, Russia sent more troops to Syria, the Russian State Duma passed a resolution to turn the Tartus port base into a permanent naval base, and the Russian Federal Council also approved the Russian air and space forces to station in Syria indefinitely. The Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov even came to the eastern Mediterranean to help defend the Russian troops and Syrian government forces stationed in Syria.

　　United Nations confrontation

　　On October 8, when the United Nations Security Council voted on two draft resolutions on Syria, the draft jointly drafted by France and Spain was rejected by Russia, while the draft proposed by Russia was rejected by France, Britain and the United States. The confrontation at the United Nations made the contradiction between Russia and western countries more open, and Putin cancelled his visit to France in a rage.

　　In the face of the western siege, Putin made a "combination boxing" and tried to break through: reopening Cuba’s listening station, returning to Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam (these two places were the front positions of confrontation between the former Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War), and even deploying iskander missiles with nuclear warheads in Kaliningrad, an enclave between Lithuania and Poland.

　　Fight "cyber warfare"

　　Of course, the United States has not spared Russia, and it has fought a "war of words" with it in cyberspace.

　　The U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence named and accused the Russian government of being involved in hacking activities with the intention of interfering in the U.S. election. On the 14th, US Vice President Biden confirmed the plan of "cyber war" against Russia to the American media, and this incident was even more noisy.

　　In response, Russian officials responded strongly, saying that the US’s "cyber war" against Russia is a state cyber terrorism act and a direct threat to Russia.

　　The new iron curtain began to return from the cold war?

　　"Is the Cold War back?" Some British media said that with the escalation of verbal threats and actions of the United States and Russia, a new iron curtain began to come, and the competition between the United States and Russia for geostrategic advantages increased rather than decreased, giving people the feeling of the cold war.

　　However, analysts pointed out that despite the all-round confrontation between the two sides, the two countries have not entered the "new cold war." With its current economic size, Russia is unable to confront the United States, what’s more, neither Russia nor the United States has the will to mobilize the strength of the whole country to start a new cold war. At the same time, there are many contradictions between western countries, and there is no one voice to the outside world, so it is impossible to form a confrontation between groups of countries during the Cold War.

　　The general consensus of analysts is that, as nuclear powers with equal strength, even in the most intense stage of confrontation in history, Russia and the United States will avoid direct armed conflicts caused by accidental fire.

　　The United States and Russia fought a "nerve war" and put pressure on each other to "fight without breaking"

　　Although it is unlikely to return to the cold war pattern, some media believe that the game between the United States and Russia is more like a "nerve war" of mutual pressure, and it has always maintained a state of "fighting without breaking".

　　Russia’s "Viewpoint" published a commentary on the 12th, arguing that Russia-US relations have repeatedly experienced high-intensity collisions, such as fierce confrontation after the Ukrainian crisis, but both sides can return to a relatively peaceful state every time after the collision. This continuous contest is actually a "nerve war" that exerts pressure on each other.

　　According to the recent confrontation between the two countries in various fields, including conflicts between the United States and Russia in other countries involving their own interests, diplomatic notes, war of words, sanctions and anti-sanctions, and freezing relations in a certain field, but at the same time maintaining relations in other equally important fields. In this game, the two sides no longer compete for ideological victory, but closely safeguard their respective sovereign interests. Because of this, the two sides can always maintain relative restraint and dare not talk about war easily. Therefore, some Russian media believe that the two sides should find a way to ease the relationship despite the intensity and high risk. (Editor: Xue Bili’s text is compiled from Xinhuanet and Workers’ Daily)

　　CCTV News:"Being an official is not the master for the people, it is better to go home and sell sweet potatoes", a ballad sung by generations, is well known. Officials should be for the people, but some people are not for the people. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, many "big tigers" have fallen off their horses one after another, which can be described as a great joy to the people, making the people clap their hands and applaud.

　　Looking at CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection’s bulletin, one kind of corrupt officials is very special: some of them "transformed" into state employees by secondment and exchange; Some of them forged their identities and falsified their ages, paving the way for promotion and wealth; Some of them have upgraded their academic qualifications and squeezed into the ranks of cadres to select and promote candidates … … .

　　The activities of fake officials "behind the scenes" are gradually becoming the talk of the people after dinner.

　　The Central Leading Group for Inspection Work dug up "five fake officials"-Lu Enguang

　　jangwong lo

　　Recently, the large-scale TV feature film "Patrol Sword" has been a hit. In the second episode, there is a very interesting content about the "five fake officials" Lu Enguang being "taken down" by the inspection team. How did he make a fake for himself as an official?

　　After investigation, Lu Enguang is a "five fake cadres" who lied about his age, academic qualifications, materials for joining the Party, work experience and family situation. More than 20 years of money to clear the way and fake officials have been restored step by step.

　　From 1997 to 2003, Lu Enguang’s career developed rapidly. During this period, he changed jobs every year and was promoted to grade six in six years. From the township to the county to the province to Beijing, from the deputy department level to the bureau level, the rocket speed is backed by money.

　　At the same time, the investigation team found that Lu Enguang’s joining the Party was also faked. In 1990, the application for joining the Party included the expression of learning the spirit of Deng Xiaoping’s southern tour speech, which took place in 1992. Obviously, the materials for joining the Party were forged or supplemented.

　　After discovering this major doubt, the inspection team conducted a more detailed check on all the files of Lu Enguang and found more suspicious details.

　　Academic fraud, in fact, he only finished high school intermittently before and after, and later diplomas were all obtained by buying, sending or mixing.

　　His age was also falsified, from 1958 to 1965, and he was 7 years younger, which made him have an age advantage in previous cadre selection.

　　The family situation is also seriously falsified. He has seven children, but only two of them have been reported. The other five children have settled in other relatives’ homes through fake procedures. According to Lu Enguang himself, "children are not allowed to call their father at home, but their uncle. He is afraid that the children will go out and shout away."

　　Although Lu Enguang is an extreme case, he not only reflects the great significance of strictly administering the Party in an all-round way, but also reflects the problems in the political life within the Party. Party and government leading cadres at all levels related to Lu Enguang’s case, including provincial and ministerial cadres, have been seriously held accountable for their dereliction of duty in managing the Party and the Party, warning all party member cadres to stick to the bottom line of discipline, keep clean and honest, and be qualified Communist party member.

　　Li Zhi, the first provincial and ministerial official to be informed of age fraud

　　"China Discipline Inspection and Supervision Newspaper" once published an article that the sword refers to file fraud. According to the article, looking at the problem of official file fraud in recent years, there are many people, including provincial and ministerial tigers who have fallen, as well as department-level cadres; There are various forms of fraud, some of which have been tampered with for up to 11 times, and some of which are false except for gender.

　　The big tiger at the provincial and ministerial level mentioned here refers to Li Zhi.

　　Li zhi

　　During the two sessions in March 2015, Li Zhi, the former deputy director of the Standing Committee of Xinjiang People’s Congress who had retired for two years, fell off the horse and became the "first tiger" in Xinjiang.

　　According to CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection’s report, Li Zhi seriously violated discipline, forged files and concealed his real age from the organization. It is worth noting that the phrase "falsifying files and concealing my real age from the organization" has not appeared in previous notifications. As a result, he became the first provincial and ministerial official to be informed of age fraud.

　　According to the public resume, Li Zhi was born in November 1950 in Lixin, Anhui Province, joined the work in December 1969, joined the party in March 1971, and holds a postgraduate degree. Since joining the work, Li Zhi has worked in Xinjiang for more than 40 years, in addition to his three-year study experience in Nanchong Normal University (now Xihua Normal University).

　　The accusation describes Li Zhi’s "criminal" experience in this way, from the chairman of Xinjiang Light Industry Co., Ltd. to the deputy director of the Standing Committee of the People’s Congress of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, involving six positions. Judging from his resume, he was involved in corruption at the end of last century, and he was greedy for almost 20 years, and he was also reused while being corrupt. More interestingly, he chose to hide his real age from the organization, because he didn’t want to leave early, and the longer he worked, the more chance he had to make money.

　　Li Zhi once said frankly: "I’m not perfect. I also have impatience, mistakes and unscientific problems. I give others the impression that I am a very decisive person. But in fact, when I made a decision, I was thinking repeatedly, walking on thin ice, and even timid. " But in the case of file fraud, I can’t see his "cowardice".　

　　Everything is false except gender-Wang Yali

　　Except for gender, all the articles mentioned in the above-mentioned China Discipline Inspection and Supervision Newspaper are false, which refers to Wang Yali, former deputy secretary of Shijiazhuang Municipal Committee of Hebei Communist Youth League.

　　Wang Yali (Image Source Network)

　　In January 2010, Wang Yali was arrested. The former deputy secretary of the Shijiazhuang Communist Youth League Committee was reported by the party for impersonating another daughter with the intention of encroaching on other people’s heritage, and his fake identity was exposed. The information in its archives is all false, and more than one third of the more than 90 official seals in the archives are false.

　　The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Central Organization Department issued a joint circular disclosing that Wang Yali was illegally employed as a national cadre and joined the Party by fabricating false identity, cadre files and work experience. In July, 2002, Wang Yali fabricated his resume, entered the Road Maintenance Collection Office of Shijiazhuang Municipal Transportation Bureau as a "demobilized cadre", and worked as a deputy director in Luquan Development Zone by forging the qualification of a cadre at the official level. Later, he served as assistant director of Xibaipo Memorial Hall, secretary of the Party Committee of Luquan Development Zone and deputy secretary of Shijiazhuang Communist Youth League Committee until the incident occurred in May 2009.

　　Some media have disclosed such a detail. Shijiazhuang has stipulated that the proposed deputy secretary of the Communist Youth League Committee should be under 30 years old. Wang Yali did not get this position, so he had to change his age, which had been reduced by four years, to four years younger. But such a change, in her resume, she became a pharmacist in a large military hospital at the age of 12, which inevitably surprised careful people.

　　In Wang Yali’s "promotion", Businessman Wang Pan played a vital role. For a long time, Wang Yali was the "goddaughter" of Wang’s broken plate.

　　It was the so-called "person" who helped Wang Yali’s rapid promotion. Later, because he lost a huge amount of property and called the police, it was found that Wang Yali took the money, which eventually led to the breakdown of their "father-daughter" relationship.

　　In 2008, Wang Po-pan died, and Wang Yali, once a "goddaughter", attempted to occupy Wang’s property, but was reported by Wang’s daughter.

　　The battle for production lasted for more than two years, which eventually led to the inside story of Wang Yali forging his resume, defrauding his official position and grabbing other people’s property. In the meantime, the official business transactions and the infighting between officials and officials are thrilling.

　　Officials who fell off the horse because of "fraud":

　　In recent years, due to the shortcomings in the management of cadres’ files, it has occurred from time to time to modify the age, add or delete resumes, or "whitewash" the background materials as a whole. With the continuous strengthening of the comprehensive and strict administration of the party, a number of corrupt officials have fallen.

　　On October 14th, 2011, Shen Qinghua, then secretary of the Discipline Inspection Commission of Linfen City, Shanxi Province, was dismissed by the Shanxi Provincial Party Committee because of being reported "file age".

　　In June 2012, Hejin City, Yuncheng City, Shanxi Province held a meeting of the Standing Committee of the Municipal Party Committee. Xue Xinmin, who had revised his birth date 11 times and forged his academic qualifications, was removed from the post of director of the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Hejin City.

　　In July, 2014, the Central Organization Department released Shanxi to investigate and deal with the file fraud case of Wang Hongying, former secretary general of Taiyuan Quality Inspection Association.

　　In January 2015, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region investigated and dealt with the case of Liu Tiejian, deputy director of the Forestry Social Insurance Center of the Forestry Department of the Autonomous Region.

　　In March 2015, Heilongjiang Province investigated and dealt with Meng Deyong, deputy director of China Merchants Bureau in Shuangcheng.

　　In March, 2015, Liaoning Province reported the case of Xia Ye, former deputy director of the Administrative Committee of Dawa Lingang Economic Zone in Panjin City, forging Party membership materials.

　　… …

　　The phenomenon of cadre fraud has not disappeared. Judging from the past cases, among the fallen cadres who have fraud problems, the forms of fraud are really varied. I believe there are similar "fake" cadres who will show their true colors one by one under the "sword" of the inspection team. In their position, party member cadres at all levels should strengthen self-discipline, improve their ruling ability, benefit one side of the people, and strive to become heroes of history rather than sinners of history. (Text/Zhao Yanling)