Why did the industrialization of Lu Yun start to accelerate in 2024? 1) The intelligent networked demonstration area will be tested first to accelerate the industrialization process of Lu Yun Automobile. According to WeChat official account, a high-level self-driving demonstration zone in Beijing, by the end of May 2024, 17 national-level intelligent networked vehicle test demonstration zones, 7 vehicle networking pilot zones and 16 dual-smart cities had been built nationwide, with more than 32,000 kilometers of open test demonstration roads. We believe that before the end of 2024, the test, verification and evaluation of intelligent networked demonstration zones have played an important role in demonstration and verification, accelerating the industrialization process of vehicles in Lu Yun. 2) Intelligentization is the second half of new energy vehicles. According to Wind data, from January to June, 2024, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 35%. Electrification is the first half of new energy vehicles, and intellectualization is the second half. With the rapid popularization of new energy vehicles in China, electrification architecture and parts have laid a technical foundation for the development of intelligent networked vehicles. In order to further consolidate their dominant position in the field of electrification, various new energy vehicle enterprises are accelerating to a new highland of intelligence. 3) Intelligent networked cars are one of the new productive forces. In April, 2024, the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Preventing Risks to Promote the High-quality Development of the Capital Market", which proposed that in order to better serve innovations such as new industries, new formats and new technologies, and effectively promote the development of new quality productivity, intelligent networked vehicles, as one of the new industries, are also expected to receive more support and investment from policies and industrial resources.
Analysis of all links in the car networking industry: "car end, road end, cloud" is expected to benefit significantly. According to the key links, the automobile industry in Lu Yun can be divided into four aspects: automobile, road, cloud and related support platforms, among which the automobile, road and cloud have a fast growth rate and a large space. According to "Incremental Forecast of Automobile Industry Output Value of Lu Yun Integrated Intelligent Networked Automobile" (China Automotive Engineering Society, 2024/07), the increment of automobile industry output value of Lu Yun integrated intelligent networked automobile in 2025 /2030 is expected to reach 494.1 billion yuan/1,325.5 billion yuan, respectively, and CAGR=22%. In terms of links, the increment of automobile output value of intelligent networked automobile in 2025 /2030 is expected respectively. In 2025 /2030, the increment of output value of intelligent roadside infrastructure is expected to reach 22.3 billion yuan/417.4 billion yuan respectively, with CAGR = 80%; In 2025 /2030, the increment of output value of cloud control platform of vehicle networking is expected to reach 2.3 billion yuan/21.8 billion yuan respectively, with CAGR=57%.
Industry rating and investment strategy. Car Lu Yun industry is a new industry. In recent years, various guide schemes and pilot policies have been frequently introduced, and a number of intelligent networked car demonstration zones have been cultivated in China. The car networking industry has entered a period of rapid development. Recently, the approval of 20 pilot cities for the application of intelligent networked vehicles "car-Lu Yun integration" and the intensive launch of Cheluyun bidding projects in various places are expected to further expand the application scope of vehicle networking, accelerate the industrialization of intelligent networked vehicles, and maintain the "recommended" rating of the automobile industry.
Focus on individual stocks. Judging from the construction sequence of each link in Lu Yun, the bidding project will take the lead in building roadside and cloud facilities. After the relevant supporting facilities are completed, the communication unit at the vehicle end will have a better application environment, and its penetration rate is expected to increase. Therefore, we choose stocks according to the strategy of "road end > car end" and "first-tier cities > provincial capital cities > other pilot cities".
Roadside: It is preferred to subdivide the track with high growth rate of roadside equipment, which will have more advantages in localization.
Comparing the future growth space of the three sub-tracks, namely, the car-track, the road-track and the cloud-track, the compound growth rate of the domestic car-track/road-track/cloud-track output value increment is 13%/80%/57% respectively from 2025 to 2030. We give priority to the sub-track with large space and fast growth, and select the high-quality supplier located in the pilot city of Cheluyun: Wanji Technology (Beijing, roadside lidar). Radar, edge computing body, V2XRSU, OBU, cloud control platform), Jinyi Technology (Shenzhen, V2X intelligent networked OBU, V2X roadside equipment series products, vehicle-road collaborative cloud platform), Gaoxin (Guangzhou, intelligent vehicle-mounted unit, RSU, MEC, all-in-one roadside sensing machine, intelligent signal lamp detection box, intelligent networked cloud control platform), Huaming Intelligent (Shanghai)
Car end: optimistic about the OBU high-quality automobile zero standard at the car end. We are looking for auto zero companies that deploy OBU-related hardware and software, and summarize the potential car networking targets in the auto zero industry: Huayang Group (car-Lu Yun integrated solution, automotive electronic integrated products), Desai Siwei (intelligent cockpit, networking service, T-BOX), Jingwei Hengrun (T-BOX, gateway, car-Lu Yun integrated solution), Vantone Intelligent Control (T-BOX, commercial vehicle remote control).
Risk warning. The risk of sales decline in the automobile industry, the risk of trade barriers, and the failure of Lu Yun’s industrialization, focusing on the company’s performance falling short of expectations and the risk of rising raw material prices.
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